讲座题目：Supply Chain Performance under Yield Ambiguity: Overconfident Price Competition

主 讲 人：华南理工大学 钟远光 教授

讲座时间：2024年1月28日（周日）14:20

讲座地点：77779193永利集团江湾楼三楼372

主办单位：77779193永利集团运营与供应链研究中心

主 持 人：77779193永利集团 周艳菊 教授

摘      要：We investigate how overconfidence bias would affect members—a supplier and two competing retailers—in a supply chain under yield ambiguity. We consider a setting where the distributional information of the random yield is limited and is only characterized by the support, mean, and variance. We study two types of overconfidence, named, respectively, overestimation that the decision-maker overestimates the mean of the random yield and overprecision that the decision-maker underestimates its variability. Using a distribution-free approach, we obtain closed-form equilibrium solutions of all six cases wherein the supplier and retailers could be overconfident. Comparative studies highlight the impacts of the two types of overconfidence: although these two overconfident behaviors have significantly different effects on the equilibrium, they both reduce double marginalization and can lead to the first-best outcome in the centralized, non-competing, and unbiased system. Besides, we also find that (i) overprecision always benefits the supplier; (ii) overprecision and overestimation of the retailers do not necessarily hurt themselves; (iii) theSupplier’s overprecision has no effect on the chain members while her overestimation hurts all parties in the supply chain, and (iv) although competition between retailers can enhance the performance of chain members, overconfidence may weaken such a positive effect. Our results caution the decision-makers thatoverconfidence of a specific chain member (i.e., supplier or retailer) can have completely different impacts. In addition, overconfidence can be a positive drive for the chain members in the presence of retailer competition.

主讲人简介:

钟远光，华南理工大学工商管理学院教授，博士生导师，工业工程系主任。长期致力于供应链库存优化、库存共享与分配、优化理论方法与应用等领域的研究，代表性论文发表在MS、OR、MSOM、POM、TRB等期刊上。主持国家自科杰青、面上和青年项目，作为核心成员参与国家自科创新群体项目。入选教育部青年长江学者（2021年）、广东省青年珠江学者（2017年）和香江学者（2017年）。获得教育部高等学校科学研究优秀成果三等奖，广东省哲学社会科学优秀成果奖一等奖（两次）和二等奖，安徽省科学技术三等奖等奖励。